MBS Day Ahead: If Rates Keep Moving Higher, It Could Still Be a Head Fake

MBS Day Ahead: If Rates Keep Moving Higher, It Could Still Be a Head Fake Apr 20 2018, 9:20AM Rates are in the midst of a serious, threatening move higher.

Posted To: MBS Commentary Bonds have had a good thing going so far in 2019. Various geopolitical uncertainties combined with the prospect of downbeat economic growth in Q1 and a generally dovish Federal Reserve to keep rates near recent lows. All this in spite of a somewhat substantial bounce back in the stock market.

Mortgage rates jumped again today, moving to the highest levels more than a month ahead of tomorrow’s hotly. that correspond with their best guess about the future. If traders think rates are going.

Economy’s Strength, Future Deficit Prospects Drive Mortgage Rates To Highest Level in a Year – Research But the QE Unwind is picking up speed. The US Treasury yield, currently near 3%, is setting up for the next spasm higher. This will push the 30-year fixed rate to 5%. At 5.2%, the average mortgage rate will hit the highest level since 2010; 5.5% would take it to the highest level since 2008.

In some situations, rates could move as low as the mid 2.3% range and sill end up looking like they were bouncing at 2.5% in the bigger picture (2010, for example). In the current case, we’ve seen this play out in similar fashion with a strong case to be made for adjacent levels at 2.62%, 2.47%, and 2.35%.

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Luis L. Bair's Blog: MBS Day Ahead: If Rates Keep Moving. – MBS Day Ahead: If Rates Keep Moving Higher, It Could Still Be a Head Fake Posted To: MBS Commentary Rates are in the midst of a serious, threatening move higher.

Bond markets have had worse days, but the average day is definitely better than. intraday yields were as high as 2.4815. Fannie 3.5 MBS (the coupons with the most relevance for mortgage rates).

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