MBS Day Ahead: What Happens If Bonds Break This Ceiling? (Philosophical Discussion on Technicals)

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Posted To: MBS Commentary After today’s Existing Home Sales data (which is unaffected by the government shutdown because it’s published by the National Association of Realtors), there will be no other bigger-ticket economic reports this week. Most of the blame for that lies with the fact that there simply isn’t much on the economic calendar [.]

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higher/lower than expected, bonds should sell/rally accordingly." In fact, for a stretch of many years, such a statement was a given, but we’ve since seen it go out the window for various reasons. In contrast, technical analysis is far less reliable. It always has been. To say that big things will happen if yields break over 2.885 is folly.

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(Philosophical Discussion on Technicals) For those paying any sort of attention to trading levels in bond markets over the past few weeks, it’s hard to miss the super narrow range between 2.825 and 2.885 in 10yr yields. That’s been perfectly intact since June 27th, and was broken for the first time in today’s overnight session.

I went thru a dozen or so companies checking the days events. A couple of the majors drifted slowly down thru the day but most interesting quite a few did the big slide (ie: Agnico) at 2:00pm. So we have a couple theories floating about that the shares got ahead of themselves, day traders now involved in the volatility etc.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be making important changes to how their mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are issued, effective June 2019. As these changes may affect investors’ related MBS investments, this note describes the rationale for the change, how UMBS investments will work after the effect.